The energy crisis and manufacturing output and employment : a case study of Tasmanian manufacturing in the context of Australian manufacturing

摘要

In the past, Tasmania was seen as having enormous, possibly unlimited supplies of hydro-electrical power. This view combined with appreciation of Tasmania's difficult economic circumstances to lend support to development of energy intensive industries, such as the COMALCO aluminium smelter at Bell Bay. This pattern of industrial development, which also relied on the initial processing of Tasmanian resources, has been described as 'hydro-industrialisation'. Over the 1970s Tasmania has shared the worldwide development of problems with energy supply, which have centered around the 1973 OPEC oil price increases and embargo. Tasmania has also developed problems surrounding its major indigenous fuel hydro-electricity. These issues have combined to produce a new energy supply situation for Tasmania; one that is marked by shortage, not abundance. The energy supply questions have arisen at the same time as pressing unemployment problems and slowing of economic growth. Since one of the major thrusts of Tasmanian economic development has been energy intensive manufacturing industry, this thesis examines the response of manufacturing to this new energy supply situation, to see how Tasmanian manufacturing energy use, employment and output have been affected. It goes on to look at changes in manufacturing production and the structure of manufacturing, in terms of three ratios: energy use to output, energy use to employment and employment to output. This examination shows the likely implications of trends in manufacturing, and manufacturing structure coming from the changed energy supply situation. The analysis shows that trends in Tasmanian manufacturing energy use, energy intensity, production process and structure are largely a continuation of past trends. They have not shown a strong response to changes in energy supply over the 1970s. Continuation of these-trends is likely to have important social implications for the stability of economic growth and employment in Tasmania, as well as being significant for future energy policy.